Paudge Connolly (Cavan-Monaghan, Independent)

It is a lonely spot at the moment, but perhaps the fact that I am the only Opposition Deputy here at the moment shows the trust my Opposition colleagues have in me.

This debate is important. It is important to look at where we are going and to take stock of our changing demographics. In my own constituency there have been changes in the form of new housing, among other things. The population is increasing but not at the same rapid rate as in other areas.

The quarterly national household survey for the second quarter of 2005 states that our population is growing at the fastest rate in Europe, with an influx of 70,000 immigrants in the past year alone. One of the major changes people have noticed is the number of foreign people they see around. Some 70,000, dispersed throughout the country, is a substantial number and is adding to our population. There was an outflow of 16,600 emigrants, the lowest since records began in 1987. I was surprised we did not have records until then of people leaving and coming into our country. It is important to keep such statistics.

The natural increase, measuring births minus deaths, was 35,500 for the 12 months to April 2005, more than double the level of 2004. Combining the natural increase and migration with a population increase of 87,000, or 2.2%, gives 4.13 million, the largest population in more than 150 years. This trend has not finished and the population will continue to grow for some time. More than 38% of emigrants were from the ten EU accession countries who joined on 1 May 2004. Of these, 17% were from Poland and 9% from Lithuania.

The labour force is just over 2,014,000, exceeding 2 million for the first time in the State's history, having grown by 94,500 in the past year. Numbers in employment have also grown, by 90,000, to reach 1.9 million. Construction, financial and other business services have shown the strongest growth. Growth has largely been driven by the construction industry. That is normally the case as cranes in the sky are associated with growth and good times. There is a major question mark over whether this can be sustained in the longer term but people have been questioning it for several years. There will always be pessimists who say the bubble is about to burst but it looks like it will continue for another while.

Agriculture and fishing have continued to register declines, their workforce reducing by over 3,000 while manufacturing employment declined by over 6,000. It is regrettable that these traditional aspects of life are declining and shows that rural life and life in general is changing in Ireland. Crippling increases in energy costs and waste management have contributed in no small way to this state of affairs. Steady economic growth can be maintained only when there is a strong export manufacturing sector and the decline in this area is worrying. Everybody knows that to make real money a country must export its goods. It is a major part of our economy and it is important we continue to take money into the country by this means.

Migration has been one of the dominant factors in our economic history. It accounts for more than two thirds of this year's demographic increase. In the past 200 years our economic history has been affected by emigration. Emigrants' remittances were a major heading in the statement of our national income. We all have some memory of receiving the cheque, the dollars or the pounds that drove our economy in the 1940s and 1950s when there was no money in the country. It was significant and I am not sure those people who pumped that money back got the recognition they deserved. There are people living in various cities throughout the world, particularly in England, in poor conditions. We should do the honourable thing and make it attractive for those people to come back. They lived lonely lives in exile and were important in keeping our economy going. It should now be acknowledged.

The past 15 years have witnessed a marked change in the pattern of Irish emigration and we have experienced positive net immigration since 1991. Initially this was due to large inflows of returning Irish emigrants attracted by improved conditions in the Irish labour market. We can recall that during the 1970s and 1980s, classes of our best-educated people took the boat or plane and left the country. We spent much money putting these people through the education system and essentially educated them for other countries throughout the world. That pattern changed around 1991, which is a good thing, and I hope we never regress to sending the brightest graduates we have out of the country.

Since the late 1990s, however, immigrant inflows have been made up of declining numbers of returning migrants and increasing numbers of foreign-born migrants. A considerable proportion of foreign-born arrivals now consist of immigrants with no prior ties to Ireland. Increasing numbers come from non-English speaking countries. When the Irish went abroad they would form groups and one can see similar dynamics occurring with many foreign nationals in the country. Prior to this transformation of Irish migration, immigration policy did not concern us unduly, with principal attention focused on US treatment of undocumented Irish emigrants since 1968. It appears that Ireland now faces the same challenges as the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other EU partners.

The economic experiences of countries, such as the Celtic tiger economy beginning in the mid-1990s, can shape the size and composition of immigrant inflows. Analysis of past immigrant inflows can tell us much about where migration pressure is likely to be most intense as well as the likely composition of flows over time. The broadening of migration into Ireland will have longer-term implications for demographic trends. While the absolute number of immigrants to Ireland is small, these people are likely to form the beginning of a chain of further potential migrants from their home countries.

The arrival of the first generation of economic migrants into Ireland is likely to be followed by further migration for the purposes of family reunification. I come across this situation regularly, where people have arrived in Ireland trying to shape their life, set up home and get the basics of our language. Eventually, they will make efforts to get their families to join them. This occurred in the health services when people received work visas to come on their own. Thankfully, the spouses or partners of such people can now accompany them. This pattern suggests that we will continue to have inflows into the country and the population will increase as a result.

Skills distribution of the immigrant population and overall conditions in the economy are likely to be further affected by migratory trends. It is odd that highly qualified people, such as doctors, teachers and engineers, come to our country but cannot get into the mainstream and are unable to use their qualifications. These people are needed and as our economy is growing, there is a demand for this type of labour. I would like to see the situation change.

Immigration can add fresh unskilled workers to an aging population but are unlikely to have a major impact on the sustainability of the welfare state. The experience of the trebling of mainly and disproportionately young inflows into Canada over the past 50 years has merely reduced the country's over-65 population by 5%. Immigrants can also fill economic requirements not met by the native labour force, filling occupations in which domestic workers are in short supply. However, in a general sense Ireland has not yet become a major pole of attraction for non-EU migrants.

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