Brian Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)

It has been decided not to proceed as yet with another national development plan — the current plan runs to the end of 2006. The shape the next plan may take is an issue to be considered by Government in due course.

Regarding the figures regularly mentioned, it is pointed out in the report of the Comptroller and Auditor General and the report of the Committee of Public Accounts that the increases in costs can be attributed to the considerable expansion in the scope and number of the projects involved, a high rate of construction industry inflation in the early years of the programme — recognised by the PAC report — and some cost estimation deficiencies prior to 2000. Deputy Bruton mentioned in his statement certain differences of estimation which I am seeking to clarify.

The report of the Comptroller and Auditor General pointed out that in the estimated costs of the national roads programme 1999-2002, the increased costs can be attributed to construction inflation of 40%; changes in the scope of the projects, which added 20% to the cost; project-specific increases on projects with non-standard elements, such as the Dublin Port tunnel, which represented another 24% of the added cost; and the failure to cost certain elements, which added another 16%. That is an accurate reflection of the Comptroller and Auditor General's report on those issues.

The Deputy also asked about cost overruns in individual projects and named some of them. Measures have been taken to strengthen cost estimation and control. The coverage of cost overruns on individual projects contained in the appendix in the recent PSE report relates to projects completed in the years 2000-02 inclusive, and the cost outturns are compared with pre-construction estimates. Original scheme estimates used in the appendix date back in some cases to 1996. The fact that there are different figures relating to all that is not surprising. The explanations are not ones I need to give as they are given in the Comptroller and Auditor General's report and by the PSE.

Deputy Bruton spoke of cost overruns of more than 80%. One can see in the appendix that taking inflation alone — using the Comptroller and Auditor General-derived inflation factors for the period — the cost overrun is not 75% but 18%. I present those figures for the sake of accuracy, in terms of how the Government sees the position compared with the Opposition's view of the matter.

Regarding the question of better cost estimation and control, nobody is implying there were no deficiencies in cost estimation and control in the past. Indeed, regarding the current roads capital programme, we are coming almost from a standing start in terms of new motorway or dual carriageway standards. There is 180 km of dual carriageway at motorway standard, half of the total inter-urban network under way. The Department and the NRA have strengthened the cost estimation and control and procurement procedures. Looking at pages 23 to 30 of the public capital programme for 2005, one can see a significant improvement in terms of cost estimation and outturn costs, as well as some projects coming in under budget and before time. That brings a little balance to this debate and the range of ongoing.assertions.

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