Bertie Ahern (Dublin Central, Fianna Fail)

There was no particular discussion on the constitutional treaty but, as Deputy Kenny said, a number of countries have decided to hold either consultative or full referenda. Spain has successfully held a consultative referendum. Seven other member states as well as Ireland have confirmed they will hold a referendum. They are Portugal, the Netherlands, France, Luxembourg, Denmark, Poland and the UK. The Czech Republic is considering holding a referendum but has yet to make a final decision. Belgium was considering holding a referendum but it is unlikely now that it will do so.

Obviously, we hope the French result will be a "Yes" vote, although there is little point in speculating. There is an active campaign under way by all sides. I met the former Finance Minister of France yesterday and he gave me details of the campaign. All sides are actively involved and there are predictions that there will be a poll of 60% to 70%, which would be high by French standards. There is an active debate on all types of issues.

The position for other countries is that although a "No" vote would create tensions and difficulties, each country has an obligation to ratify the treaty before 1 November 2006. That process will continue. The Netherlands has made some statements about that but the statements have not yet been clarified. In November 2006, if four fifths of the countries have ratified it, the European Council will debate how to handle it, that is, if other countries have not come up with a solution before then. However, it is too early to play for that. For our part, we will comply with the obligation we gave at the European Council, that we will attempt to ratify the agreement before November 2006.

The principles of the Stability and Growth Pact involve maintaining fiscal discipline and controls, monitoring those controls and allowing the Commission to ensure countries adhere to the criteria set out in the Maastricht Treaty and subsequently in the Dublin Convention in 1996. These criteria still apply. While there have been useful changes and amendments, they are of the type that many countries have been seeking. However, they do not allow indiscipline or anything that would create a problem or undermine price stability. I am sure it will be monitored carefully by the Commission on that basis. It recognises the valid argument that countries with low debt that are involved in development policies do not create budgetary instability and should not, therefore, affect price stability. The European Central Bank is being cautious that countries do not try to use issues on the current side or to use other flexibilities which would not be allowed. That is the prudent line. As it is renegotiated, the rules and the strictures are still there other than in the new areas that are set out. I do not see why it would create inflationary pressures.

See this speech in context