Mr. Conor Minogue:

I thank the committee members for the invitation to present here this afternoon and share our perspectives on Ireland's ability to meet its 2030 targets.

Ireland’s transition is at a major inflection point. Our 2030 and 2050 targets are looking more challenging than ever. While emissions are falling and some sectors are performing strongly, it is not happening at the pace sufficient to keep pace with population and economic growth. The Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, projects emissions to reduce by up to 23%, which is well below the 51% target. Ireland faces an enormous challenge to get back on track. That task has not been made any easier by the current global economic and geopolitical volatility, which is undermining business confidence, risk appetites and investment certainty. Meanwhile, Europe faces a competitiveness crisis, bringing renewed focus on energy affordability, energy security, cost effectiveness and the threat of carbon leakage. However, while the world has changed in many ways, for Ireland, an open economy that is heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels and with enormous untapped renewable energy potential, the imperatives and opportunities of transition have not changed.

It is more important than ever, however, that the transition be pursued more effectively and mindfully. We have identified four barriers that must be overcome for us to meet our 2030 targets.

First, Ireland's transition lacks strategic direction. A recent National Economic and Social Council report notes Ireland's power sector transition is proceeding into fog, with limited visibility and strategic alignment. The same is true of the wider transition, from our perspective. Ireland's transition end goal must be more than a target. Ireland needs a compelling vision for what transition looks like and means in practice. There remains great uncertainty regarding the role and interplay of different technologies and climate solutions that compete for resources, skills and finance. There is also low visibility on the costs of transition, how it will be financed and how those costs will be distributed across society. We also do not know what the transition means for system reliability and affordability in the next decade, which will be a period of immense transformation.

Effective climate action is also hindered by a fragmented and complex policy landscape. There are multiple technology-specific action plans and strategies but no central co-ordinating instrument. Ownership of the transition is widely spread, with no single authority able to direct national resources, resolve interdepartmental conflicts and make decisions where trade-offs are necessary. The climate action plan is too narrow in that it does not take into direct consideration energy affordability and system security, which leads to policy gridlock, drawn-out processes and indecision. We believe there is a clear role for an all-of-government energy transition masterplan.

The ongoing economic and geopolitical volatility is also a threat to climate action. Investment confidence is weakening at a time when major investment is needed. The SEAI has estimated that €19 billion in capital investment will be needed each year by 2030. High electricity prices are a major barrier to decarbonisation through electrification. The gap between the natural gas price and the electricity price, called the “spark gap”, is a clear problem that needs to be resolved. Over the past decade, Ireland has faced some of the highest electricity costs in the OECD.

To scale decarbonisation, the State must play a more active role mobilising, derisking and “crowding in” private investment through more targeted and impactful supports. Renewed efforts are needed to reduce electricity costs.

The slow pace of energy infrastructure delivery is also a major barrier. The International Energy Agency and the 2024 Draghi report both single out Ireland as one of the worst performers in this regard. Ireland's lengthy and complex planning and permitting regime and the frequency of judicial review mean energy projects can take over a decade to bring to completion. There is also a wider problem with public support for critical energy infrastructure. This demands attention, including greater political championing of energy projects.

I thank the members for their attention. We look forward to answering their questions and discussing these issues in more detail.