Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 1 October 2025
Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate, Environment and Energy
Climate Change Targets 2026-2030: Discussion (Resumed)
2:00 am
Mr. John Murphy:
I thank the Chairman and the committee for inviting us here today.
At the outset, I want to make clear Irish farmers understand the urgency of climate action and are determined to play their part in our national emissions target reductions. On their own farms, farmers are witnessing the reality of climate change, with longer periods of heavy rain and more frequent and severe storms, such as Storm Éowyn. Farmers are ready to be part of the solution but the transition must be fair and practical. Climate policy must reflect Ireland's unique grass-based land intensive farming system, protecting farmers' livelihoods, maintaining competitiveness and avoiding unnecessary administration burdens. Only then can farmers fully engage and make the necessary changes at farm level to meet these targets.
Agriculture is central to Ireland, not just as our largest land use, covering over 70% of the countryside, but as a cornerstone of our rural economy. It sustains nearly 170,000 jobs and generates more than €19 billion per year for the economy. This scale naturally shapes our emissions profile. Agriculture accounts for 38% of Ireland's total greenhouse gas emissions, compared with the EU average of 11%. Our emissions are dominated by short-lived gases, particularly methane, which in 2023 represented 29% of Ireland's total emissions, more than double the EU average.
Ireland’s climate challenge is therefore distinct, and any effective solution must reflect the realities of our agricultural system.
Under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021, Ireland set legally binding targets to reduce greenhouse gas, GHG, emissions by 51% by 2030 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Within this framework, agriculture has been assigned a sectoral target of reducing emissions by 25% by 2030 relative to 2018. In addition to this end-point target, binding limits are set for the first two carbon budget periods, 2021-2025 and 2026-2030, which cap total agricultural emissions over the decade at 202 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, Mt CO2 eq. In 2024, agricultural emissions fell by 1.7% compared with 2023, and by 4.6% relative to 2018, driven largely by a reduction in livestock numbers. Notably, this marked the first annual decrease in dairy cow numbers after thirteen consecutive years of growth. It also represents the third consecutive year of reductions in agricultural emissions. These trends demonstrate farmers’ willingness to adapt and make tangible changes to reduce their climate impact.
Current EPA projections indicate that, under the with additional measures scenario, emissions could fall by approximately 16% by 2030, assuming the implementation of mitigation measures outlined in the climate action plan 2025. If on-farm diversification measures are included, agricultural emissions could fall by 23% by 2030, significantly narrowing the gap toward meeting our sectoral 25% reduction target. The scale of the challenge to meet the emission reduction target should not be underestimated, given that agricultural emissions are inherently linked to the production source. Achieving these reductions, will require supportive policies, incentives and a just transition, to enable sustainable emission reductions.
Recent refinements to the national greenhouse gas emissions inventory have led to a systematic 6.8% reduction in estimated agricultural emissions - excluding fossil-fuels - compared with the 2022 data that informed the Climate Change Advisory Council’s 2021–2030 first carbon-budget proposals. These changes primarily relate methane and nitrous oxide emission factors for non-dairy cattle and sheep. This means that according to the EPA, agriculture will meet its sectoral emission ceiling, SEC, target, provided emissions fall a further 0.1% in both 2024 and 2025 relative to 2023 levels. While continuous refinement of emissions data is positive in order to build confidence in climate policy, it is vital that the SEC targets are not changed every time new and improved data becomes available. Changing targets will send mixed signals to farmers and create policy uncertainty. Keeping the SEC targets fixed preserves transparency and keeps the focus on on-farm emission reductions rather than accounting adjustments. A stable SEC target rewards accurate measurement and sustained action, ensuring that improvements in data strengthen credibility instead of undermining the drive for real climate progress.
The agriculture sector has a clear, science-based mitigation pathway, with measures outlined in the climate action plan 2025 and grounded in the Teagasc marginal abatement cost curve, MACC, which identifies the most cost-effective routes to meet the 2030 emissions-reduction target. Farmers are already making significant progress, demonstrating a willingness to adopt measures that are cost-saving or cost-neutral, and where resources allow investing in more advanced and costly innovations. These include reducing the use of inorganic nitrogen, increased adoption of low emissions slurry spreading, the genotyping of over half of our national cow herd to identify lower-methane stock to breed from and the development of the AgNav digital sustainability platform. These achievements show that Irish farmers are already delivering measurable, science-based reductions and investing in innovations that will secure deeper cuts in the years ahead.
While progress is evident, farmers remain concerned that further action will stall without stronger supports to offset the costs of high-impact mitigation measures that cannot yet be recouped from the marketplace. At present, the marketplace rewards low cost over low carbon, leaving many farmers, who are already operating on tight margins unable to invest in new technologies or systems unless clear incentives or market-based payment mechanisms are introduced. Regulatory instability is an additional barrier. Over the past five years, frequent changes to farm-related regulations have created uncertainty, making medium-term planning and investment decisions difficult and reducing overall farm efficiency. A period of stable policy is now required, with a pause on new regulatory changes to allow farmers to plan and invest confidently.
Several high-impact mitigation measures identified in the climate action plan and highlighted by the Climate Change Advisory Council could deliver rapid emissions reductions if properly incentivised, including use of approved feed additives and incorporation of additives in slurry to cut methane emissions; earlier finishing of livestock by supporting farmers to achieve target carcass weights at a younger age; backing an agri-led, farmer-centric biomethane sector, creating a viable business case for renewable gas production and use; and introducing carbon and nature farming schemes to de-risk forestry as a land-use option and to support the rehabilitation of peatlands.
Given agriculture’s strategic importance and the scale of the transition required, the IFA proposes that a significant proportion of the €3.15 billion Climate and Nature Fund 2026–2030 is ring-fenced and directed toward on-farm interventions and diversification activities, with higher support rates for farmers on designated lands. This could be a major lever to support on-farm climate action. Feed and slurry additives offer promising opportunities to reduce agricultural emissions, but their financial viability, scalability, and adoption face several challenges. In particular, the cost-effectiveness of slurry additives and the effectiveness of feed additives in Ireland’s predominantly pasture-based system require further research. To enable widespread uptake, targeted supports will be needed to offset the high costs and make these technologies accessible to farmers.
I would like to raise a concern regarding the potential impact of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, CBAM, coming into effect on 1 January 2026, which could undermine Ireland’s plan to replace CAN with protected urea. With 80% to 85% of Europe’s urea imported, and urea’s carbon intensity at 4 t CO2 eq per tonne, the CBAM costs could reach €340 per tonne significantly higher than CAN, at €230 per tonne. Critically, CBAM does not account for the emission reducing benefits of inhibitors in protected urea, potentially penalising a lower emission fertiliser and slowing Ireland’s progress toward its climate targets.
Carbon leakage occurs when climate policies in one country or region lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions in another region with less strict regulations. The 2021 Climate Act required the appropriate Minister and Government to have regard to “the risk of substantial and unreasonable carbon leakage as a consequence of measures implemented by the State to pursue the national climate objective.” Irish agricultural produce is internationally recognised as having among the lowest carbon footprints per equivalent kg of output across the world. It is therefore highly likely that regulations impeding the sustainable production of produce in Ireland will most likely lead to carbon leakage. While IFA fully recognises the need for Irish agriculture to minimise overall carbon emissions, the inevitable consequences from a carbon leakage perspective must also be considered.
The aforementioned Climate Act of 2021 specifically mentions “the special economic and social role of agriculture, including with regard to the distinct characteristics of biogenic methane.” The current programme for Government also recognises the distinct characteristics of biogenic methane, as described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, and advocates for the accounting of this greenhouse gas to be reclassified at EU and international level. The IPCC report highlights that conventional GWP100 metrics overstate the warming impact of constant methane emissions by three to four times over 20 years, while understating the impact of new emissions by four to five times. Biogenic methane produced during the digestion in ruminant animals is part of a natural carbon cycle, carbon from plants is converted to methane and oxidises back to carbon dioxide within about a decade. While stable methane emissions do not increase long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane remains a potent short-lived greenhouse gas, so reductions are important for near-term climate goals.
The Climate Change Advisory Council considered this science when developing the carbon budget proposal 2031-2040, interpreting climate neutrality as stabilising Ireland’s warming impact through net-zero carbon dioxide emissions, alongside deep cuts in methane and nitrous oxide - achieving temperature neutrality. Adopting a net-zero carbon dioxide plus temperature-neutrality target by 2050 is scientifically grounded, economically prudent and supports a just transition for Irish farmers. It aligns with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals, avoids over-reliance on uncertain large-scale carbon removal technologies, and reflects Ireland’s agricultural emissions profile, delivering genuine climate stability rather than an unattainable net-zero accounting target.
The IFA also believes that the adoption of GWP* as an alternative approach to measuring methane is much more appropriate to ensure a more accurate measure of methane takes place. Without fair accounting for methane’s short-lived nature and adequate supports and safeguards for production, climate policy risks squeezing farmers' incomes, compromising food production and undermining rural resilience.
For all sectors like agriculture, where emissions are deeply embedded in economic viability, land use and national identity, the challenge is not simply to reduce emissions at all costs. Effective climate action must be paired with incentives that drive meaningful reductions while supporting farmers and rural communities. Both Ireland’s Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021 and the EU’s nationally determined contribution to the UNFCCC recognise the importance of a just transition. This principle ensures that climate measures are not only environmentally effective but also socially acceptable and politically legitimate.
Agriculture has a central role to play in helping Ireland meet its national and EU emissions reduction targets. Failure to act risks financial penalties, diminished policy sovereignty, reputational loss and missed economic opportunities. Conversely, timely and well-supported climate action in agriculture is not merely a legal obligation; it is a strategic investment in Ireland’s economy, society and environmental future.
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