Dr. Robert Kelly:

Truthfully, given how corporation tax receipts have evolved, I am not so sure there is a methodology that can predict excess corporation tax receipts.

The reality there is the decisions of fewer than ten firms. As much as we rely heavily on economic models, I do not think there is an economic or forecasting model that will be able to pick that up. What we can do, to keep a focus on it, is look at the underlying component and ask what the economy would generate absent these decisions multinationals are making. Yes, they might have been wrong for 13 years, but I do not see what we would replace them with.