Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 23 September 2025
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Pre-Budget Engagement (Resumed)
2:00 am
Dr. Robert Kelly:
There are two sources. One, at a higher level, is the quarterly bulletin signed article on geo fragmentation. There is also what we call staff insights that give detail on this. I cannot remember the exact name of the staff insights but I can send the title of it to the Deputy. People can look up staff insights on our website. At a macro level, there are all these interactions but they are just done on an aggregate. What this does is it looks at all the individual sectors and how they interact with each other both here and abroad. If there is a shock that affects manufacturing in a certain zone somewhere else and that feeds into our services sector, it picks that up. When we ran that model and looked at the new steady state with a 15% tariff, I would describe it as a moderate change. In particular, pharmaceutical activity came down, as did even some machinery activity. In the case of our services sector, such as the likes of financial services and professional services, they go up.
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