Dr. Tom McDonnell:

It is worth unpacking that a little. First, the G7 should not have agreed to handle it in advance of the culmination of tariff negotiations because it was an obvious chip to play. That would not give you a lot of confidence. Second, it effectively undermines the OECD deal. If the US is not part of the deal, why would other countries not withdraw as well? In many respects, I see that as the first step, although there was already mood music to suggest the OECD deal was not for the long term. The longer term play is that the EU will push back with digital services taxes again. If this whole thing collapses, the Irish Government might be delighted in the short term with US companies being exempted, but the longer term implication is arguably much more significant for Ireland, with France and Germany deciding to go their own way and hitting in a different way, which again reduces the rationale for a company to be in Ireland. I would not disagree with Mr. Brady on this but I do not have a specific figure for how our attractiveness or corporation tax base would be affected.

The OECD deal was good for Ireland, considering how it played out. We know, of course, that there was much reshoring of intellectual property assets from tier 1 tax havens to tax haven conduits. Let us put it that way. Ireland benefited from that. If the OECD deal collapses, corporation tax rates could go down to 10%, 5% or 0%. Who knows what the likes of Hungary might do? In the longer term, that would certainly be bad for Ireland. However, we are talking about years ahead, potentially. I suspect that the Department of Finance, while its first instinct on the development might have been quite positive, might now be more worried than it is letting on.