Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 16 July 2025

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure, Public Service Reform and Digitalisation, and Taoiseach

The Impact of Tariffs on the Irish Economy: Nevin Economic Research Institute

2:50 am

Dr. Tom McDonnell:

Well, yes and no. I do not have projections out to five years. My sense of it would be that if employment continues to grow, albeit at a lower rate with tariffs in place, at 1% or 1.5%, what will happen to income tax receipts will depend on the nature of the jobs that are created and the wages of the workers. If job growth is accompanied by wage growth, we are likely to see higher income tax receipts because labour is where most of the income tax receipts are coming from. It depends on the composition. If we lose high-paid jobs, such as in pharma, and we replace them with poorly paid jobs, such as in fast food, on a one-for-one basis, that would mean lower income tax receipts.

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