Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

It is a different model of game theory. There is an issue with Trump to a certain extent where we have been here before, although I do not think past experience is any predictor of future experience in this context. There were 20% tariffs in respect of steel, and they lasted throughout his previous term. There were counter-tariffs that impacted on European citizens, and they were only lifted when a new Administration came in. It is kind of hard to predict where it is going. We are in the budgetary cycle and there is much discussion about a cost-of-living package and the need to support individuals. In a way, I believe Trump is being used as a reason not to bring forward a cost-of-living package. I said earlier that if Trump woke up this morning and tweeted that tariffs were off the table, there would still be no cost-of-living package according to the Government. It is nice for those in government to say there is huge unpredictability and all the rest. I meet people on the street who think we are going into recession. They think we will lose huge amounts of jobs as a result of this. None of us can predict the future.

Is Dr. McDonnell's analysis consistent with what the Central Bank, the ESRI and the Department of Finance have found, namely that, even in the baseline and adverse scenarios, employment and the economy will continue to grow? In some scenarios, the economy will grow faster than those of many countries in Europe have been growing in recent years. This is important. That is not to take away from the fact that if there were no tariffs, which we hope there will not be, it will grow more. The Central Bank has forecast that growth will be 9.7% this year. With tariffs of 20%, it predicts that growth next year will be 2.7%, which is higher than last year. We are probably the envy of many other countries that are not seeing this level of growth, even without tariffs. Will Dr. McDonnell address those points?

I know that the situation is fluid and that we do not know the level at which tariffs will land, but whatever happens is going to have an impact on our potential. It will definitely have an impact on supply chains for businesses and so on. That is why we need to make sure it does not happen. If tariffs do emerge, however, all the predictions are that there will still be growth in our economy, in modified domestic demand and in employment figures beyond what we have at this time. Is that how Dr. McDonnell sees it?