Dr. Tom McDonnell:

The problem is that it depends upon the whims of a very intemperate person. Ideally, if we were dealing with a rational actor, we might think that the second option to play hardball makes sense because a rational actor would pull back and say they do not want the US economy to fall into recession because, presumably, it would mean their being destroyed in the congressional elections. That would be the logical thing.

With this current Administration, however, its policies are so eccentric compared with norms, it is difficult to say what we ought to do because Trump could push it further, regardless of what the US financial markets think of him when it comes to "TACO"and all that. The decision for the Irish economy is a different from that relating to the EU economy. The EU, as a bloc, could play hardball. The EU economy is enormous. It is as strong as the US economy and is able to hit back. If it sucks this up for a period and destroys tariffs as a policy for a generation, then maybe there would be value in that. If it does that, however, it has to make sure it also puts in place policies that would protect workers. We treat this as a shock like Covid. We try to ride it out for a period. On the other hand, if you are Ireland, it is clearly better not to respond at all and to say we will take the hit and the damage. In other words, we minimise the damage to our economy because we are so exposed. If you end up with 30% for dairy, whiskey and all of these things, you basically shut down the US as a market. We are not in the same place as the other European countries. Our contrary position from a European perspective is completely rational.