Dr. Conor O'Toole:

The year 2024 was a watershed for us. We expected quite a bit more momentum last year and coming in at approximately 30,000 units was a disappointment. When we look at some of the underlying factors that we use to try to forecast supply, what do we typically do? There is a range of hard factors involved, as I mentioned in my opening statement. Those include the cost of labour, planning and land availability. There are other factors relating to momentum, in particular in respect of the relationship between planning applications and commencements, and how we forecast from commencements to completions. Looking across all those factors, two things are important. The development levy waiver and the water waiver had an impact on commencements last year. There was a considerable increase in commencements last year to 70,000. Typically, one would expect them to come through and become housing completions within a nine- to 18-month timeframe. However, we do not think those completions are going to follow the typical timeframe. We must then consider the other factors that weigh on the housing side. Those include rising labour costs and increases in the cost of general production materials. Inflation has moderated in that area, but the prices are still high. Land availability is another issue. All of these factors on the soft indicators and the more hard factors, taken together, suggest there is no real momentum in the market. When you look at the first quarter of this year, which is the most recent period for which we have data, the relevant number is just under 6,000. The first quarter of the year typically comes in around 20% of the annual total, if we consider the historical data. That puts us in or around the region we are in at the moment. Those factors are weighing from the outside.