Dr. Paul Egan:

A 4% fall from the absolute value. It is hard to put a number on it because we would have to know what the projection for GDP would be, but if we were to apply it even to what GDP was last year and take more or less 4% off, it is a significant impact. We can do the same with employment, for example, if we were to take what employment was even last year and we see employment falling by 3% after the seven years. That would be a permanent imposition, so if tariffs were placed and not removed. It would be a 25% reciprocal tariff, where the US hits the EU and then a quarter later, the EU comes back with a retaliatory tariff and they both stay in place indefinitely. If we were to take employment figures last year, that would be again a significant number. Presumably, all going well in the baseline without any tariffs, GDP and employment would be in a stronger position. Seven years down the line, GDP would be higher and the number of people in employment would be higher so the figure would even be greater than that.