Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 15 July 2025

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Quarterly Economic Commentary: Economic and Social Research Institute

2:00 am

Dr. Conor O'Toole:

Typically that is extremely complicated, because it relates to the global economy. The dollar is one of the reserve currencies. It is impacted by all the various international geopolitical events. For Ireland, what matters is the dollar-euro exchange rate. When tariffs were introduced, we would have expected to see the dollar strengthen relative to the euro. We did not see that. It depreciated. Why? It is because of the uncertainty that has kicked in, which has outweighed any of the other effects. As long as that uncertainty is in the market and we have this difficulty with whether the dollar is the safe haven it used to be, given the American policy choices and the direction in which the American economy is going, it is hard to see the dollar recovering significantly. However, it will depend on how those geopolitical events play out.

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