Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 8 July 2025
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Engagement with the Central Bank of Ireland
2:00 am
Mr. Vasileios Madouros:
As the Deputy has said, our forecast for 2025 is about 32,500 units. The Deputy is right that this is a lower forecast than our previous projections for 2025. The reduction is mainly because of the actual data we have seen. We have been surprised on the downside in terms of completions in 2024 and in the first quarter so that fed into our forecast.
There is always uncertainty around projections. Typically, when we do the projections we look at what has happened to commencements and then there is a lag. It helps us to see what might be happening to the completion of new units. That relationship is not as strong as it used to be because commencements were very strong last year as a result of the waiving of the development levy. There is uncertainty around projections but the real uncertainty is around some of the underlying factors that matter for increasing the supply of housing. I refer to things like progress in the delivery of infrastructure, the availability of zoned and serviced lands, reducing delays in the planning system or some of the issues that we have talked about in terms of productivity in the construction sector. These are some of the fundamental factors that drive the uncertainty around the projections. As always, we will look at the data in the next quarter and will incorporate any new information into our new projections.
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