Mr. Oisín Coghlan:

For the clarity of listeners or readers of the transcript, the costs are specifically for our climate obligation under EU regimes. The SDGs do not have any of those enforcement mechanisms we are talking about. To answer the question, the reason there is such a large range in the price is because much of the price will depend on how other countries are doing. If many countries are missing their targets, they will all want to buy credits from each other, but there will not be very many sources so the price of those credits will go through the roof. If many countries are on track and getting there, the price might not be so great. If no one met their targets at all, there would be a significant structural or architectural problem.

As it happens, at the same time the EPA released its report on our projections for 2030 which showed us off track, an equivalent European exercise showed that the Union as a whole, which has a target of reducing emissions from 55% compared with 1990, the current projections were at 54%. There is a lot of variation within countries but overall we are on target. This means there will be some countries overperforming if others are underperforming and there will be credits around but they could be quite pricey. It is unlikely the whole scheme will collapse. If all the big countries were missing targets and there were very few credits available from smaller countries, you could imagine a last-minute renegotiation, but that does not look like it is what is going to happen.