Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 25 June 2025
Committee on Climate, Environment and Energy
Carbon Budget: Climate Change Advisory Council
2:00 am
Ms Meabh Gallagher:
Absolutely. Two activity level scenarios were considered in the scenarios informing the council's proposal. S1 is a base-case scenario of business-as-usual activity, which for example would see total cattle inventories projected to decrease by 7% by 2050. We must also consider the S2 scenario of lower agricultural activity, which would see total cattle inventories projected to decrease by 22% by 2050. It is important to speak about the pathways for adoption of mitigation measures. There were two pathways modelled: a P1 ambitious adoption of mitigation measures, and a P2 very ambitious adoption of mitigation measures. When I say "very ambitious", I am talking about the most ambition possible, in which these measures are adopted at the technical maximum. It is worth noting that those mitigation measures, including protected urea, feed and slurry additives, reduced age of slaughter and improved animal genetics, are already proven. The P1 or lesser rate of adoption of those measures was not deemed sufficient to deliver the carbon budget. All of the agriculture scenarios, including the lower activity levels and business-as-usual activity levels, require a very ambitious adoption of mitigation measures.
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