Ms Marie Donnelly:

I thank the committee for the invitation to join today. I hope the screen and the sound work okay. We have given a written opening statement. It is a little long, so with the Chair's indulgence, I will just identify some of the key points from it but we will happily take questions on any of the elements of the opening statement or indeed any other questions that might arise.

Why are we are here today? The council, as required by the legislation, has come forward with recommendations for carbon budget 3, as we call it. This is from 2031 to 2035. We had a provisional one and now we are coming back with a definitive proposal, as well as a provisional proposal up to 2040. We are required to do that by the legislation. We came out with that just before Christmas, which was in time for the deadline.

What are we proposing? In essence, we are proposing a pathway that will allow Ireland to achieve climate neutrality. By “climate neutrality”, we mean that Ireland would no longer be contributing to global warming. It is a key element of the Paris Agreement. In that context, we have set out some numbers just to refresh. For carbon budget 1, we had a maximum emissions quantity of 295 MtCO2eq. Carbon budget 2 was 200 MtCO2eq, so we can see it is reducing. For carbon budget 3, we are proposing and recommending 160 MtCO2eq, and for the provisional carbon budget 4, we are recommending 120 MtCO2eq. We can see that, over the period of time, the amount of emissions provided for and allowed within a carbon budget declines, which will allow us to get to a trajectory that will achieve the objective of the legislation, which is climate neutrality - in other words, we would no longer be contributing to global warming. In that context, I wish to say how much the council appreciates the support we received from the members of the carbon budget working group. This was a number of experts drawn from across academic and other institutions in Ireland. It is a testament to their knowledge, skill and expertise, as well as their time commitment, that we were able to do the kinds of analysis we did and that allowed us to come forward with this recommendation. I thank them very sincerely for that.

A key element of our recommendation, and probably pivotal in this context, is the message we have been making as part of our recommendations for the past number of months now, which is that Ireland needs to phase out and ultimately eliminate fossil fuels. Fossil fuels, for the most part, are imported. We spend plus or minus €9 billion a year importing oil, diesel and gas. We cannot be sure of the supply. Indeed, just over the weekend there were some jitters in the energy market. We did not know whether supply would be continued if the Strait of Hormuz was closed. We did not know whether prices would vary. We are very vulnerable in terms of the amount of fossil fuels we use.

It is also an issue that fossil fuels are more than half - nearly 60% - of the emissions we have in the country. The opportunity does exist because we have our own natural resources that allow us to have energy in a sustainable way but not from fossil fuels. We put much emphasis in our recommendation on this pivotal act, which is to phase out and ultimately reduce fossil fuels, and instead use our own sustainable energy for the energy services we have in society and in our economy.

Clearly, we need very urgent action. We cannot wait.

Our carbon budget puts a limit on the amount of emissions that we can emit over a period. The impact of when those emissions come out is also important. Going from 100%, 100% and 100% over the first three or four years to zero actually creates more global warming than if we decline on a routine basis, preferably at an early stage, through the emissions we give out. In that context, urgent action is needed. We have the figures for where we are today. We have the projections from the EPA about where we are likely to be by 2030. As the committee is aware, we recently did an analysis with the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council of the implications of Ireland not achieving not just our own national legislation but indeed the targets that have been set for us at a European level. In that context, the message we are trying to get across is that it is better to spend the money now rather than to pay fines and compliance costs later on. Let us get the benefit from it now, as soon as possible, so that we can all benefit in the country.

This, of course, will require real political leadership. It means making decisions about investments for the transition. A key issue will be infrastructure investment but also investments in upskilling and indeed reskilling of people and businesses, as well as the introduction and adoption of new technologies. In that context, for example, the national development plan, NDP, review, which is due next month, will be key in addressing how the planning aspect of our economy and society can support the transition in a less impactful way on citizens by virtue of the policy decisions that are taken. All of this can only happen with the participation, active and otherwise, of the people of Ireland. We need comprehensive decision-making. This quest for a sustainable society where we have managed control of our cost of living, with reduced emissions and therefore no further contribution to global warming, can only happen when people are involved, are part of the solution themselves and are supported in what they do to make the transition happen. As we have said before, in this transition, we cannot afford to leave anybody behind.

That is a quick canter through our opening statement. I am happy to deal with any aspect in more detail or indeed go through any of the detail of the opening statement that I have not covered thus far.