Dr. Karen Devine:

I thank the Senator for her question. She asked about the importance of public opinion on neutrality. I wrote my PhD thesis on it and that is available online. The people's understanding of neutrality is very consistent over time and five decades of opinion polling. It means not being involved in other people's wars, being independent and retaining our independence, especially in the context of big power pressure to get involved in conflict, and being impartial and not taking sides in a war. That is consistent. Senator Craughwell referred to the Hague Conventions. It coheres with the obligations in the Hague Conventions, which are the international customary law on neutrality.

I also showed that public opinion is rational and structured. What that means is, I looked at what predicts support for Irish neutrality from a sample of 2,500 people in Ireland. The fieldwork was conducted by the ESRI. To be proud to be Irish was the predictor. Neutrality is a projection of Irish national identity for the Irish people to the world. The second thing was independence, particularly in the context of European integration. When we look at Eurobarometer polls we can see the Irish public are the least supportive of security and defence integration, but they are most supportive of the EU as an organisation as a whole. That is a very rational position to hold because when we joined in 1973 the EEC, was sold as a trade organisation, not as a security and defence organisation or as a global military power.

It is important because of democracy. I have said one of the three operating procedures of the European Union is the fait accompli. I am citing Giandomenico Majone, a recently retired Italian academic. One of the other three operating principals he cited in his book, Europe as the Would-be World Power: The EU at Fifty, is that integration has priority over everything, including democracy. We have had to re-run two referendums because we did not vote the right way. Democracy is fundamental. It is why we are here. It is fundamental to show democracy does matter and the Irish public policy preferences are going to be followed because, if the Government abolishes the triple lock, they have abolished the social contract upon which this polity is based, so it is extremely important.