Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)

I thank Deputy Timmins. I have never seen such a short-term forecasting difficulty as that which we have at present. It is a real challenge for us to be able to give a very accurate forecast regarding what will happen on a one- or two-year basis. This relates to the question Senator Higgins put on the medium-term fiscal plan. It is a real challenge we are working through.

The overall point Deputy Timmins makes is correct. Our long-term forecasting has been better than our short-term forecasting. Over the space of many years, with one exception that I will discuss in a moment, we have done a reasonable job of forecasting. For a particular year or the next year, it is harder to do. We are doing work on this. The Department has a project under way called Ireland 2040. This will conclude soon, and we will publish details and bring them to the committee. I am sure the committee will have an interest in seeing that work. It tries to look over, for example, a number of decades or a decade and a half at what longer term issues we need to think about from the point of view of demographics, climate and so forth. This work is nearly complete. We will be very happy to bring it back to the committee and take it through it. Short-term forecasting is very difficult. We have just completed a project on very long-term forecasting.