Dr. Robert Kelly:

Dr. O'Toole put this quite well. Traditionally, let us say if we are doing this pre-pandemic, we had a very clear relationship. If we saw a commencement; we could almost predict with a high degree to certainty we would see a completion. What we have seen, as Dr. O'Toole pointed out, is partially due to pandemic disruption in the building sector. There was also a policy intervention at the same time. We are struggling to understand what exactly the time difference is between seeing a commencement and when will see those come in. We had predicted closer to the historical relationship. We are not seeing them come up as completions.

We have to do two things. One, we have to pass a judgment on whether we will see the full amount of commencements to completions. The second is the timing of them. Some would have been in 2025 but if it is closer to 12 or 18 months, they will be in 2026 rather 2025. Our quarter 1 figures were below expectations. That makes me think there will be downward pressure. We will have a fresh forecast within the month.