Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 10 July 2024

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Summer Economic Statement: Discussion

5:30 pm

Mr. John McCarthy:

The answer is we have not provided the Government with updated numbers beyond 2025. The reason for that is there have been so many changes since we undertook the SPU. If you think about it this way, when we did the SPU we had corporate tax figures for quarter 1, which was down 25% year over year. It is now up nearly double digits year on year. There has been a massive change in the space of a couple of months. In previous iterations of the summer economic statement, there have only been modest changes on the tax side, spending and the economy.

What we have also seen is lots of economic changes. Inflation has come back much more rapidly. Then we have had additional measures announced as per the SPU. The Department felt we could not give the Government, in the short space of time since the end of quarter 2 when we had the additional information, any more figures beyond next year because we could not stand over them without having rigorously gone through 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030. What we did, and were absolutely clear and the Government made the formal commitment in chapter 3 of the document, that it will set out the EBR and GGBs in September or 1 October when the budget will be. There have just been so many changes over the last couple of months that we could not incorporate them into later years. That is the reason for stopping the GGB forecasts in 2025.

The final issue I should mention is the whole base erosion and profit shifting, BEPS, process-----

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