Professor John Doyle:

If we assume either that there will be no deal on pensions, in which case the issue of debt will not arise, or that whatever deal is done will not involve a debt transfer, given the UK might have other issues it brings to the table, we will inherit the North's GDP. I am struggling to recall what the proportion is. I think it is 20-something per cent, so there would be a reduction of something like 20% of 72% in the debt-to-GDP ratio. It would make our borrowing a little cheaper, although it is cheap at the moment and there is a limit on how great an advantage there would be. Certainly, the National Treasury Management Agency would find it easier to go to the markets if we were heading somewhere closer to 50% as a debt-to-GNI ratio.