Professor Seamus McGuinness:

I was quite alarmed when I read that statement. I do not know the basis for it, to be honest. When we look at productivity levels between the North and the South, we can see that they have only started to diverge out over the past 20 years. We have done a modelling exercise, so we know the policy levers that need to be addressed. We have spoken at length on some of those. The assumption is like the scenario of taking a patient into the hospital and saying that they are sick, that we will not bother wondering what is causing that sickness and that we will just leave them in the corner for the next 20 years. It just does not make sense in terms of how policy works. We know what needs to be done to address the growth trajectories.

Given the constraints on policy making in the North, the budgetary constraints and the way the political system has been set up in that we do not have an integrated approach to policymaking, then constitutional change does provide an opportunity to a new approach to policymaking. It potentially allows for investments to address the structural deficits and, in particular, a role for external actors - if they are considered post reunification - such as the United States of America, which could contribute financially. The EU and the UK could also have a role. We believe that productivity can be altered with the right policy framework post reunification. We do not agree that it would take 20 years.

On Professor Doyle's point, one does not need complete convergence in order to eradicate subvention costs. It only needs to be partial. This would be a basic expectation of the planning process. To achieve that is the bottom line. Dr. Bergin can talk on this as she does more modelling on the impacts of the Irish macro economy over the years and how it has transformed since the late 1990s. Again, this goes back the point that there is so much potential growth within the Northern Ireland economy. It is underperforming, but I do not agree with the two-decade projection at all.

Again, that is a matter that needs to be run through the models as part of the planning process. We need to identify the levers that will generate growth in terms of the most effective way and, hopefully, the most cost-efficient way.