Professor John Doyle:

That is the tension between a sovereign government and a regional government in any part of western Europe. Realistically, the only fiscal levers available to the Executive in Northern Ireland are not likely to raise that much money and they tend to be flat taxes such as rates and water, where some allowance can be made in the benefits system but wealthy people and people on low incomes pay more or less the same amount, so they have an inequality impact. With no control over the taxation and benefits system, it is very hard to counteract that. I have my sympathies for the Executive. The evidence is clear: education needs investment. If, however, the only alternative is to raid the health budget, I would not blame any politician for being reluctant in the current circumstances to go around telling the public, "Yes, we need education for the future but, by the way, we have just taken a couple of hundred million pounds out of the health budget to make it happen, and you will not see the benefits for five years." That is an almost impossible situation when you do not control the taxation system or the wider political and regulatory context. What needs to be done is clear, but the political route to get there when you do not control the taxation system is challenging. We can see the same situation in Wales, where I have done some work recently.