Professor John Doyle:

The phrase "20 over 20" is obviously very memorable. Everybody remembers it, so it sticks in your head. If you actually strip things away, you realise public servants would pay tax with regard to pensions. I am referring to things that are simply so unlikely for a government. About €1.5 billion would be inherited from day one. That sits there; there is a deficit. Assuming the Government would want to do something in year one, I suggest a figure of around €1 billion would allow equalisation of state pensions, the first pay rise for public servants and some discretionary spending. It would represent a significant uplift in public expenditure in Northern Ireland. If the Executive had an extra €1 billion per year to spend today, it would not be anxious about balancing budgets. That implies €2.5 billion. It is not a small amount but it presents a radically different funding perspective to a government. That is a much more likely scenario than €20 billion over 20 years.