Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

-----or is likely to be. That would be in the context of a Government increasing capital investment to meet the housing needs of the State, which is building up the stock of assets within the State. Is it a deterioration or a significant deterioration in the fiscal position of the State? The Government could still have a surplus at the end of that process or just not put it into the fund to be invested in the future. What the Government has decided to do is invest in the future by building the houses here and now. The language in this is not good because a Minister for Finance bringing a resolution to the House saying there is or is likely to be a significant deterioration in the fiscal position of the State is not just heard in this Chamber. It is heard externally and it is not the right type of message. The Minister is right in saying that this is very loose. The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council will give its review but at the end of the day, the Minister will make the decision on foot of a resolution to Government but will have to make that determination and say that. That is not a good position to be in, particularly in a situation where there might be a general Government balance or surplus but the Minister is not in a position to put €2 billion, €4 billion or €6 billion into funds because he has decided to invest it into what is really needed here and now, which is what people are crying out to us about. Of the thousands of people who are going to Australia, some are doing what generations before them did but others are telling us that their lives are being put on hold because of the housing crisis and they do not see a future and they do not see hope here. When we meet any chamber of commerce or business organisation or talk to large employers, including FDI, the number one issue on their agenda is housing. The National Competitiveness and Productivity Council is telling us that housing is the number one issue on the agenda, so a Minister for Finance and Government deciding to meet those needs here and now in a different way - and I know the Minister thinks he is meeting those needs in his way - by ramping up capital investment and using the windfall corporation tax receipts we have is not a significant deterioration in the fiscal position of the State because the Minister could still have a balance but just not have the funds in that given year to put into the future Ireland fund. What this section does is make the Minister say that there has been a serious deterioration.

The Minister has his plan and outlook over the next number of years. He has calculated what the general Government balance is without looking at those up side risks and the proportion that could be put in those funds. If I agreed completely with the Minister's plan, that would be exactly the way to go because we will have those surpluses if the down sides do not come into play and, therefore, it makes sense to invest those surpluses into the future. This is why I agreed with last year because we can put money into the fund while also ramping up public housing. We will be able to do the same this year because of the scale of the surpluses. My view is that we will be able to do it next year but the Minister may have challenges doing this in 2027 or 2028 and we do not know what 2029 and 2030 look like. That is the problem with this legislation. Regarding the Minister making that determination, I know it is easy. It is so loose. I am sure any Minister will do it. If this Government was re-elected, given what I think is likely to happen, it is likely that resolutions will come before the House. This language could have an impact when the impact should not be there because it is literally a decision of Government to invest the surpluses it has in capital expenditure to meet the needs of the here and now but also the future and it is not a significant deterioration.

Perhaps one could argue that this does not meet a significant deterioration but it does. That is the point. It is so loose. The Minister would have to bring that resolution in order not to put the money into the fund. I believe that has consequences. I would not like to see headlines in some of the newspapers saying that the Minister for Finance is bringing a resolution to the Dáil because he or she believes there is a significant deterioration in the public finances when we are still running a general government balance or indeed a surplus.