Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

We see an Exchequer deficit is projected from 2026 onwards. If that were to continue, there would be increased borrowing, but that is not the be-all and end-all. With all these SPU numbers concerning borrowing and so on, we know the risks could increase with pillar 1 and pillar 2 or there may be some improvement if pillar 1 does not go through. However, that is all based on the current projections of the Government. This is where we have dire problems. At its Ard-Fheis, Fine Gael promised 250,000 houses. I think with Fianna Fáil the figure is roughly the same. I am not sure if it has made a statement on it yet. The Commission will argue, I presume, that we need 50,000 houses per year. These figures include capital increases of roughly €500 million per year.

That is not cumulative. How can the Government build the number of social, affordable and cost-rental homes we need to build in the coming years with that reduced level of capital? It simply cannot meet the challenges. Even if the Minister is saying that from 2026 onwards, we would have to borrow to put money into the fund, it would be on the basis that we would still leave people high and dry in terms of housing because the actual ramp-up in capital investment is to be extremely low from 2027. In 2026, there is a bit of windfall capital. We do not know how much of it will go towards housing yet, but in 2027 the increase in capital will be €635 million. That is nowhere near what is needed to meet what is required under the programme.

We are having these conversations and parties are claiming they will do X, Y and Z, but the only way it could work for Fine Gael, and possibly Fianna Fáil, with these numbers would be by leaving it to the private sector and having it continue to build apartments in Dublin that are not within the reach of ordinary people. I was out with Deputy Andrews and Councillor Daithí Doolan yesterday. They were looking at apartments and saw that many lie empty because of what is being charged. Nobody in the community can afford the prices being asked. What we need are affordable, social and cost-rental homes that are affordable to people in their communities. We will not be able to meet that demand with transfers of the scale in question into the funds, particularly in subsequent years. Some of it can be met in the first couple of years but there will be a problem.

The SPU is based on the numbers I have mentioned. Taking 2027, for example, there is a core year-on-year increase of €5 billion, but €3 billion of that relates to existing service levels. Capital is only €635 million, and then we have new measures, which is the remainder. Between social welfare and tax packages, it will not even meet what is required. That is the problem. How do we square the circle? That is my main concern. I genuinely believe some of the windfall corporation tax revenue needs to be used for a catch-up programme to build houses across the State that meet the needs of people within their communities. That is the core issue. If the Government does what it proposes in this legislation, it will simply not achieve this. If it tries to do what it has set out in the SPU in terms of new measures, we will just continue with what we have had up to now, with no major ramp-up over the coming years by way of State-funded support for housing.