Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 20 March 2024

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Stability Programme Update: Discussion (Resumed)

Dr. Robert Kelly:

Yes. Dr. Martin O’Brien may want to come in on that in a moment. I fully appreciate in individual cases this could definitely be the case. This is piece on which we have been doing more and more work, to understand not necessarily what we focus on in the aggregate but, underneath that, the distribution of what is happening in individual households is really important. However, and my consumer colleagues will be able to speak much better to this, we have a robust consumer protection framework and mortgage supports. There are potential avenues there for individuals who are experiencing mortgage distress. I do not want in anyway to come across as saying that, with policy rates coming across, there are not individual cases where mortgage holders would need to engage with their lenders to understand the level of distress. Taking it even a level back and going back to what we talked about regarding the labour market, one thing which would be quite significant that we expect to happen over the coming years is that the level of wage growth will once again exceed inflation, and this may happen for the first time in a generation of many of the workers we currently have in the workforce. They experienced a period whereby inflation was much greater than their wage growth.

They were looking at their purchasing power. To the Deputy's point, they were still trying to buy the weekly shop and pay debts. They felt quite a lot of pressure. I can only imagine how a number of households felt. What we expect to happen is to see a resumption in households' purchasing power growing again with the expectation, as the Deputy said, in the market where we might see policy rates coming down. Therefore, the outlook is quite a bit different from what we have seen over the last two years.

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