Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 28 February 2024

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Impact of Climate on Public Finances: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Mr. Killian Carroll:

I can come in on the agricultural emissions we spoke about. The Leas-Chathaoirleach is right - the agricultural sector will face challenges in meeting its targets. Teagasc did modelling work to see what would likely be required for the sector to meet its targets. Its modelling work suggested that there would have to be a reduction in livestock numbers, particularly in the cattle herd - beef and dairy. In our modelling work, we assumed, because there would be a reduction in livestock numbers, that there would be a corresponding reduction in farm incomes. We assumed that these farmers would ultimately need to be supported. The figure we had was about €500 million per year between 2026 and 2030 in supports. Some farms may operate at a net loss in existing circumstances. Some beef and sheep herds operate at a net loss. One could support those farms in particular to transition away from using the land for their beef and sheep herds towards other land use like afforestation. They could end up better off as a result.

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