Micheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

The geopolitical risk will predominantly affect us economically, and it potentially affects European security in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I am delighted with the news today that €50 billion has been greenlit by Europe, which is very important and sends a very strong signal to Russia that Europe is in it for the long haul. What is happening in the United States is very important. If the US flank was to become weaker in the context of European security and the guarantee that is essentially there for that security, that would be a vulnerability for Europe as a whole, including Ireland.

With regard to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, any disruption to trade affects livelihoods. While the furthest behind will suffer first in Africa and the Middle East, economies generally will suffer. We suffered from an inflationary cycle post Covid and from the war in Ukraine with regard to energy. Prices will go up again if people have to take a longer route around.

Security is not just military security; it is also economic and trade security. We have a strong and modern industrial base here. I worry about the potential of the situation in the Middle East to escalate, particularly if there is an attack on Lebanon. Iran is in the midst of all of this but that fact is rarely discussed in the Dáil, in particular its role in respect of Hamas, Hezbollah and proxies in Syria and Iraq. There is potential for a much wider conflict, which everybody is trying to avoid, but we can see what happens when events happen in that people get led into attacks which have consequences.

On the situation in Europe, because we are so geographically far from the theatre of battle, it means that sometimes we do not appreciate the real, existential nature of that war for people living in the Baltics and Poland, who deeply feel their countries would be extremely vulnerable if Russia achieves victory in Ukraine. When I spoke to them two weeks ago, some other EU foreign ministers made me aware that their people are now expressing this in the streets and are very worried about it. The Germans had that too, by the way, and then the Ukrainians repulsed the Russians and drove them back to the Donetsk region. However, for Germans, for the first time in the modern era, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised insecurities and vulnerabilities. Hence, the big change and the €100 billion investment in military capability because they are now suddenly feeling very vulnerable too. The transatlantic alliance is key to European security. That is my take on it. The economic side will be our first casualty.