Ms Jasmina Behan:

On ageing, we use several methodologies to calculate various lines on pensions expenditure. Our pensions system can be categorised around three pillars: the State pension, occupational public sector pensions and private pensions. On State pension expenditure, costs have been calculated by the Department of Social Protection through the actuarial reviews. The most recent review, published in March 2023, sets out the cost of funding State pensions to 2076. Expenditure is expected to increase from around €10 billion now to around €55 billion in 2076. The actuarial review is done every five years.

On the cost of public sector pensions, our Department conducts an analysis called an accrued-to-date liability analysis. This is an actuarial analysis that we do on behalf of the Central Statistics Office as a response to the EU regulatory requirements. The most recent one, which was done three years ago, estimated that expenditure on public sector pensions will increase from the current estimate, €4 billion, to approximately €8 billion by 2045, and it will have decreased to €6 billion by 2070. The decrease is expected to occur because of the impact of the single pension scheme effect and also the integration effect whereby an element of the public service pension is integrated with the State pension element. That will translate into the cost of the State pension and deflate a bit in the latter years. We do exercises regularly to understand the costs of both the State and public service pensions.