Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 20 September 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach

Banking Issues: Central Bank

Mr. Gabriel Makhlouf:

I will start and then hand over to Mr. Madouros. The quarterly bulletin we published yesterday does not support the Deputy's conclusion. Notwithstanding the fact that we have shaded growth downwards a bit, the economy is still growing. We are, as we said, at capacity. What we are seeing now is that the capacity constraints are now becoming more binding and it is slowing the economy down. That is what we are forecasting. We have not forecast a recession, or the sort of downward spiral that the Deputy is describing. The picture right now is a bit different.

That does not mean that it constrains the Government’s flexibility to spend on things that it prioritises. There is still much spending that is assumed in our projections and that Government is planning. All we are saying is that because we are at capacity – this is what I have been saying – one needs to be very careful, first, to not exacerbate the problem by spending too much generally and, second, to make sure to spend on the right things, because not doing so could also exacerbate the problem. At this stage, the economy is not in a world where fiscal policy suddenly needs to support the economy to come out of some slow down. Right now, it is not there.

Does Mr. Madouros wish to add something?

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