Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 20 September 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, and Taoiseach

Banking Issues: Central Bank

Photo of Pearse DohertyPearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

I thank Ms Rowland. We will continue this engagement because this is obviously going to take a while to work through. We will wait to see what the BPFI has to say about this later on in the week. The Governor made the point that the maintenance of the European Central Bank, ECB, rate for a sufficiently long duration will make a substantial contribution towards a timely return of inflation to the ECB's target. Before all of the ECB governing council's meetings, meetings where it decided to increase the ECB rate ten times in a row, economists are polled. In fairness to them, they have got it right nearly all of the time. It was probably the closest this time around but the majority still suggested that there would be an increase of a quarter of a percentage point. In the same poll, economists estimated that rates would start to decrease in March of next year. What are the Governor's reflections regarding the ECB achieving its target? He talked about achieving 2.1% in 2025 and a reduced rate next year. In his view, are the economists right again that it is fair to suggest that rates could start to reduce in March of next year if things stay along the course as set out?

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