Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 20 September 2023
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Pre-Budget Engagement (Resumed): Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and Nevin Economic Research Institute
Professor Michael McMahon:
I think the answer is "Yes". I do not see that that is not possible at the moment. Where things go badly wrong and where we are trying to argue in favour of a prudent and sustainable policy is there can be occasions, typically when the economy needs most support, when being able to give that support becomes limited. It can become limited because your fiscal plans are no longer viewed as credible, people do not want to lend you the money or the cost of borrowing that money goes so high as to make it undesirable to do so. A prudent and credible fiscal framework is part of what we believe allows governments to do that and, in the Deputy's words, change the impetus as the economy is evolving and provide supports when it is needed. The counterbalance to that is providing support when it is needed also requires not overstimulating when it is not needed. When the economy is running above full employment it does not need, in aggregate, a massive support. That is important. It is also why we argue so heavily for strengthening the domestic fiscal rules. They are part of the credibility that Ireland has not just for our own discussions. Internationally, when credit rating agencies and other investors are thinking about whether lending to Ireland is a good idea and will be repaid in a sensible way, a credible fiscal framework with institutions that support sensible decision-making and good planning by the government of the day contribute to that ability to take those policy stances that I think the Deputy is endorsing.
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