Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 19 September 2023

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Pre-Budget Engagement: Central Bank of Ireland and ESRI

Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

Yes. On the national debt, as was pointed out, when people talk about the national debt levels, it is always quite striking. People naturally want to focus on the size of the debt. The only point to be made in relation to it is that typically what we do when we look at the debt from an economic perspective is that we look at the sustainability of the debt. We look at it in terms of a ratio of economic output in some shape or form, or the taxation base, for example. It is clear that no matter what indicator one uses, the debt as a percentage of that has been coming down quite strikingly over the last number of years. Whereas before and in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, we would have been one of the higher debt countries in the euro area when using those kinds of metrics, it is now evident that we are back down to the middle of the league in terms of our debt position. That is not a reason to be complacent about it, but it is worth keeping that in mind.

Certainly, what one does with the reserve fund is an important point. People have noted that the Department of Finance has put forward proposals for it to be used, or for a sizable portion of it to be used, to look at pensions. That is a very prudent, good idea. However, there is still some element of the present fund that should be used for investment purposes. That may be investment targeted particularly at more capital-intensive projects because we have a very low unemployment rate and because there are probably certain labour market constraints out there. Yet, we need to think of that fund for addressing the housing issue and the climate change issue. Even the national development plan, NDP, may need to be topped up in light of the demographic and migration trends that are there. It therefore would be wise to have that option within the fund for that purpose.

Comments

No comments

Log in or join to post a public comment.