Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 19 September 2023
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Pre-Budget Engagement: Central Bank of Ireland and ESRI
Dr. Robert Kelly:
I do not believe we have a calculation that captures it all. We just capture the increase in core spending. We can certainly consider whether it would be of value to think about these scenarios in the future. However, let me just give the Deputy the context as regards some our thinking on the expansionary fiscal policy and the relativity and put some numbers around that. The European Central Bank does a forecasting exercise every quarter and one of the elements involves thinking about how much what is happening in fiscal spending is impacting on the economy. It measures, by reference to output, how much of an increase or fiscal expansion there is. From last September to now, the average across Europe was approximately 0.2%. The difference from the stability programme update to the summer economic statement is 1%, five times the European average. We are extremely focused on-----
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