Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Tuesday, 19 September 2023
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Pre-Budget Engagement: Central Bank of Ireland and ESRI
Dr. Robert Kelly:
The way I would describe what the Deputy is saying is that, within that net rule we have talked about, there is current spending and capital spending, and the latter is speaking to what the Deputy is talking about. There is potential to increase the capacity of the economy going forward if we deal with infrastructural spending, for example. The reality is that, given the size of the shocks to restore people's real incomes, avoid a fiscal drag in terms of the tax system and have capital spending, it is just too much spending for where the economy is at right now, and the tough choices are between those. There is a need to support households, without doubt. Some of them have experienced huge increases in their cost of living. To the earlier point, and maybe I did not come across right, I did not want to be dismissive that people with mortgages have higher incomes. They could also have very high costs and could be the most acutely affected. It is about identifying those households and getting the balance right between that and doing capital spending to unlock infrastructure to support the provision of housing, for example, which increases the potential for more people to come into the State to provide the labour and to stop people leaving the State, as the Deputy pointed out. It is about getting that mix right, but again there are trade-offs inherent in all that and getting the balance correct.
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