Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 19 September 2023

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Pre-Budget Engagement: Central Bank of Ireland and ESRI

Dr. Martin O'Brien:

This is similar to some of the more recent European data. Part of it is that there is just a natural cycle element to this. At a particular point, once the shock happens, like what we have seen, we will see this sort of uptick in profitability at that particular point in the cycle. There is a third element in that relationship, which is productivity, and it is the interplay between wages, productivity growth and profitability that will ultimately determine how persistent or how long inflation pressures might last in the economy. The forecasts that we have - it is similar with respect to the outlook for the euro area overall - is that the buffers of profitability that have been built up in the corporate sector through 2021 and 2022 are now there, in essence, to finance the real wage catch-up that was embedded in our forecast and also for the euro area. For the most part, it is really just a timing issue, I would suggest.

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