Dr. Aine O'Connell:

For those who do not have the map, in 2010 the national nitrates average was 7.5 mg; in 2011 it was 7.4 mg; in 2012 it was 7.5 mg; in 2013 it was 7.3 mg; in 2014 it was 8 mg; in 2015 it was 7.7 mg; in 2016 it was 7.2 mg; in 2017 it was 7.7 mg; in 2018 it was 8.3 mg; in 2019 it was 9 mg; in 2020 it was 8 mg; in 2021 it was 7.7 mg, and in 2022 it was 8.2 mg. There is a variation from 2010 to 2022 of 0.7 mg of nitrate per litre. However, we had 1 million dairy cows in 2010 and 1.5 million in 2022. The peak was in 2018-19. That was a consequence of fertiliser applications and mineralisation as a result of the drought and, unfortunately, incorrect advice that was given to farmers at the time.

We cannot describe the trend here. This was something we highlighted at Moorepark Open Day 2023. People are making varying interpretations, depending on where they sit. At the open day, Teagasc stated that things were stable and possibly improving. The Department said they were stable, yet EPA representatives today said they are decreasing and are not in a good place. If proper statistics were put to this, as they are in the ACP where definitive trends are outlined and described, we would have a very clear interpretation of where we stand.

On the -1 or +1 mg/l, the Commission working document and the report the EPA has to submit to the Commission every four years outlines the way the trends are going. If there is a trend of greater than -1 to +1 mg/l nitrate it is considered a weak increase or a weak decrease in nitrate trends between two reporting periods which is two three-year rolling averages. It is a longer period of data capture and a stable trend is anything that falls within -1 and +1 mg/l. A very strong increase in declining water quality would be if nitrates increased by more than 5 mg/l between two reporting periods. None of us would want to see water quality in that space.

On page 11, it is important to note that even in the south east where there might be a little bit of a trend, it is still very hard to verify. Back in 2010, nitrates were at 12 mg/l. Therefore there is an inherent baseline because of the soil. It will be much harder to reach -----