Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 13 July 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement

Finance and Economics: Discussion

Professor John Doyle:

Integrated education is hugely important for social reasons. I suspect it would have limited economic impact in terms of today's agenda whereas I think ending the 11-plus examination and breaking down the grammar secondary system would have a huge economic and social impact on people's chances. It is not unrelated to life expectancy because education is often a proxy for poverty, which we know is a huge driver of life expectancy.

I am engaged by the debate on the Commonwealth one way or another. Interestingly, in the discussions where people of a liberal unionist disposition or Alliance Party voters are asked what would at least make them think about a united Ireland - it might not be their first choice but they could live with it if it came to it - they mentioned the economy, the health service and peace. The other kinds of issues will be on the table if we ever get to that point but they are not what we want to talk about right now. If they get over the hump of the economy and health, they probably think those other issues could be solved. They are not convinced that we have answers to people's problems when it comes to the economy and the health system.

Regarding net migration, the CSO is projecting net inward migration of approximately 450,000 this decade in the southern economy. Most of those people will be working and will be of an age where they are not pensioners or on benefits. Most of them will be contributing to society in relatively decent jobs - paying taxes and contributing to GDP growth. In Northern Ireland, we are looking at flat migration. If we take a ten- or 12-year horizon, there will certainly be minimal growth in Northern Ireland. It is certainly a factor for some sectors. The Scottish Government has been lobbying for control over migration because it has the same issue. It has a very different perspective on migration from that of the London administration but it is getting nowhere because it is too big an issue for the Conservative Party.

The CAO system is the big barrier. Overwhelmingly, kids in the North do three A levels because that is the norm. Students going to Oxford University only need three A levels. Why would someone do four to go to a southern university? People tend not to do four A levels unless they have a very particular reason. When they add up for points, they cannot compete with kids doing six leaving certificate subjects. It would take some negotiation but I suspect the Departments of Finance and Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform would not hear of us treating A levels the same as the leaving certificate. It would not be justifiable on academic grounds and it would mean a huge potential inflow to a university system that is under pressure. Perhaps an exception could be made for people in the school system in Northern Ireland where the numbers would not overwhelm and where there would be a good social reason to do it.

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