Dr. G?zim Visoka:

Overall across the western Balkans, support is down to 60%, the lowest figure we have seen in a long time. It is a kind of warning.

That mostly comes from Serbia, which has the lowest support for the European integration project. We are found in a complicated situation where the West, especially the EU and the US, are keen to appease Serbia so that they do not become adversary or a hub that endangers the EU's interests. That is why in a way they are willing to sacrifice Kosovo and Bosnia for the sake of holding Serbia in some sort of balanced path and so it does not deviate further. That is the main security concern of the US and the EU when it comes to geopolitics. It is a matter of how they can appease Serbia to a point that they do not really offer Russia and other non-western allies a hub to undermine western interests, values and stability.

When it comes to Kosovo, Serbia has a view that they do not want to recognise Kosovo. They are open to the process of normalising relations but their key and open agenda is partition. They are not willing to let Kosovo exist as a sovereign state, and that leads to open conflict. The debate about the association of Serb municipalities in Kosovo has raised fears that this is just a starting point for something more serious, such as something like Bosnia or the Republika Srpska partition. By doing that, Serbia then manages to divide and make Kosovo as dysfunctional as Bosnia. This indirectly then leads to a divided country and a divided region. Bosnia has no perspective internally to try to create a consensus to move forward when it comes to NATO and the EU.

This is the real risk. This is the hybrid threat that the EU and the west are sometimes sleepwalking around, as was mentioned here, by coming up with these temporal solutions. The Dayton Agreement was a war-ending agreement, but it was not a long-term peace settlement. In a way, it was designed to end the war. It was only later that we realised that it was actually difficult to implement. It in itself became a blockage for European integration, because the EU could not really have member states that had such a complex, three-tiered governance that was divided by all these ingrained power-sharing instruments. The European integration process itself tries to reform the Dayton Agreement and enhance the resistance from Republika Srpska. It is important to know that our own makings in the early stages are undermining the stability of these fragile regions and, in turn, they are also agitating our attitude towards this country and hence adding more conditions, delays and so on and so forth.

With regard to Ireland's role, Ireland has been steadfast and consistent in its position. It is one of the only countries in the EU that has never deviated from that commitment. I am proud to also be an Irish citizen and to see that support that has always been there. As someone who is based in DCU, where we have a strong interest in and commitment to understanding conflict and democratisation, we see that Ireland could play a much stronger role when it comes to building scholarships schemes or offering its expertise - soft power. There have been a number of initiatives in the past but there is scope for more structure and intervention at a technical level and also at a political level. As I said earlier, Ireland should align with central and eastern European countries when it comes to enlargement. It should be more active for the sake of peace but also because of its own commitment to share the burden. There is a big divide in the EU when it comes to the Western Balkans between the traditional western Europe front and the central and eastern European front. Over the years, France has feared that if the Western Balkans countries join, they will tip the balance when it comes to votes and long-term influence, and that the EU will become an eastern European or central European project. In fact, many argue that Poland will be the next epicentre of European strength. I, therefore, would not rule out internal divisions of that nature in the EU. They are hidden but they are also undermining the entire enlargement process.