Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Thursday, 22 June 2023
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
Barry Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source
I thank the witnesses for making themselves available, their presentation and their responses. As I said earlier, this debate begins much earlier in the calendar every year, and this is especially the case this year. It is the beginning of an election campaign, at least by the parties if not by the Government. This is because the Government, as we know, is obliged to work to its own programme for Government and its ability to implement that. That is based on the income and expenditure as they evolve during the course of any period of Government.
Witnesses have heard, for example, here today that one party seeks some sort of comfort from the witnesses that the excess corporation tax receipts are becoming more consistent and more of the norm. That will allow them, then, the moral and economic comfort to spend these temporary receipts on permanent spending. Witnesses have heard another party look for similar comfort to give the impression or to have it believed that they would spend those temporary receipts on permanent spending in a much better manner than was done previously, before all the corrective measures came into place to ensure that the same dilemma might not present itself again. Yet, here we are.
Against all that, and the backdrop to all of that - as has been outlined and is obvious - is that the economy is performing well, contrary to the plight of many partners in Europe. Our credibility is strong. Our credit rating is strong. We are high up both of the respective league tables. That does not happen by accident; it is by design. It is, maybe, as a result of our learnings from years past, or maybe as a result of the corrective measures being put in place by our partners within the EU regarding fiscal rules. By working to, acting on and sticking to a plan, that is where we are at. That was proven by the manner in which we were able to respond to Brexit, and the manner in which were able to deal with the pandemic, and the potential impact that could have had on our economy. Corrective measures were put in place.
The other issue that has been discussed here, and rightly so, is that this committee, prior to my arrival on it, is in the process of arriving at a recommendation regarding that savings vehicle issue, hopefully. It is envisaged that Government will make a decision on that in the coming months, which will put to bed a lot of the speculation that takes place on an annual basis. Long may those excesses continue but there has to be some reality brought to bear, especially when one considers the figures that Dr. Casey mentioned. If the international average for such receipts is 8% and we are at 28%, and we are trying to be prudent by saying that realistically, it will maybe land at 14%, then that vehicle has to be put in place to ensure that this issue is put to bed into the future.
Insofar as we can when we are dealing with our own constituents, we all try to, I will not say dampen expectations, but bring a bit of reality in order to ensure that expectations are not allowed to cater for crazy economics into the future. In any household, it is about what is coming in and what is going out. The best guesstimates of IFAC's and Government's expertise indicate what any receipt might be in a given year, and thereafter, there are costs to stand still. New teachers have to be employed to keep schools open, and new nurses and doctors in hospitals to keep them at the level they are at presently, irrespective of what one wants to do beyond that. There are commitments within a programme for Government which that Government has the right, expectation and the mandate to implement. It cannot be changed midstream. There are borrowing and debt costs that have to be adhered to, and the witnesses have mentioned themselves the great strides that have been made in that regard. Was it 62% down to 39%?
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