Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 22 June 2023

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Professor Michael McMahon:

Let me answer the questions and then we can go back and forth as the Deputy sees fit. On the first question, as a matter of accounting, the way in which saving the excess corporation tax contributes to the fall in net debt is by allowing the Government to run larger surpluses. Those surpluses mean we do not need to borrow and, therefore, the debt can fall. It is literally that level of accounting calculation. To clarify, €1 in €4 of total tax revenue comes from corporation tax, not from excess. We had a bit of discussion before the Deputy arrived. The estimate of the extent to which there is excess is €1 in €7. It is a number, last year, of between €8.7 billion at the lower end of excess up to €14.2 billion at the upper end of the estimates. As we were trying to point out previously, these are the corporation taxes we think are driven by multinationals' worldwide activities not related necessarily to the behaviour of the domestic economy. It is difficult to estimate. The reason we have a range and pick a number in the middle, such as €11.5 billion last year, is it is difficult. We have this range and it could be closer to the €8.7 billion figure or the €14.2 billion but trying to get a handle on that is a difficult problem. The Department of Finance has a number close to our midpoint, which is €10.8 billion. That is the order of magnitude out of a total of just over €20 billion. That is the sort of quantum we are talking about with that.

The Deputy's final point was an interesting one on the role-----

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