Mr. Svein Gjedrem:

Our early expectation was that we would have a real return of 4% over time. That was adjusted down to 3% because the overall long-term growth prospects for the world economy are not as high as was the case in the 1990s and early 2000s. That is the real economy background. Real interest rates are also much lower. The expected return from equities and bonds are lower than we thought would be the case ten, 15 or 20 years ago. That is the reason. Lower expected growth in the world economy is very important. Financial investments and real investments depend on the long-term real growth of the world economy. That is the background.

The return from the fund has been higher than the real return. The return since the start has been higher than 4%. With that experience in mind, 3% seems to be quite conservative when we look backwards. However, looking forward, we think it is a realistic estimate. The return fluctuates a lot. Last year, we had a negative real return of almost 20% due to the high equity part. That was on the back of many years with very high returns. In 2008, we had a negative return of 23%. Even though we had two years with a very negative return, over time we have had more than a 4% real return from the fund.

It is the huge fluctuations in the return when you invest in equities that also give the long-term high return from equities. It is a compensation for the risks that we are willing to take.