Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 24 May 2023

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Sovereign Wealth Funds: Discussion

Professor Stephen Kinsella:

If you have the globe to invest in and the overall goal is to derive the largest possible return from the fund, then you should look globally. If you want to take a piece of the fund and place it into ISIF, sure, go for it. ISIF is probably the wrong place to put it. ISIF, as far as I am aware, is still looking for more investable projects. I do no think there is any sense it is running out of money.

To answer the first part of the Deputy's question, without putting words in his mouth I think he has in mind a remedial work scheme. If the crisis had not happened, the dip in the chart would not be there. It would be more or less a straight line. How to fill in the area under that curve with spending? We could probably work out what that is pretty easily. It is just an integral. I could work it out after this. Let us say it is €20 billion, which is probably not that wrong. If you choose to only do €5 billion, rather than taking it from the fund I would never put it in there in the first place. I would create a separate remedial capital works fund and say universities should have this many new buildings. The Deputy mentioned ports. That would be the first and maybe only thing I would spend on: having world-class ports and maximising the return for the taxpayer from this wind. The next Dáil should have a Minister for wind. It is not a bad idea because having somebody whose job is to extract that value for the taxpayer is a good thing. If the State chooses to step into that role in a big way, there is an argument for a separate fund that just does that. It would have to run on a commercial basis and there would be state aid rules to consider. It would not be a simple process. By choosing to invest in one or two sectors, let us say offshore wind and batteries to keep it simple, that kind of strategic capital fund would be useful because it alters the structure of the Irish economy.

A different one, which is more like a remedial work scheme - like University of Limerick needs another building, Letterkenny IT needs another building and we need another hospital - is, I think, closer to the Deputy’s conception. The question there is whether we can get over the implementation issues. The supply function of the economy is pretty much full. It is difficult to find people to build things, as I know from personal experience. It is quite difficult to get this to work. If you want to build a new hospital, you have to have the people, expertise and planning systems ready to go. If that were there and it was clear we would be able to finish it for that amount, it would probably make sense. However, do not forget that then effectuates a larger current spending. Building another children's hospital, say in County Donegal, would immediately switch on a much higher health spend in that area. Capital spending switches off but leads to an increase in current spending. I will give a simple example. The motorway system costs a lot to maintain. The capital spending was finished nearly two decades ago. Is that fair? No. It is nearly finished but the overall maintenance costs are there and are quite considerable.

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