Professor Brigid Laffan:

I thank the Deputy for the questions. On the Arctic, climate change means that the Arctic will come into play with shipping lines in a very real way. The Chinese are looking at that and the Russians come down from Murmansk and right around. There is no doubt that the Finns, the Norwegians, the British, the Americans, the Canadians and the Russians are all there. The Chinese are there. It had a governance system but some of those arrangements and agreements are running out and it is going to be much more difficult in the context of the battle for the resources and the next phase. We have to ask what the implications of that are for Ireland and at least pay some attention to what is happening to our north.

Regarding attitudes towards Ireland, it is very difficult to answer in terms of defence and security. There would be a lot of respect for Ireland's record in peacekeeping and for Ireland's contributions to all the various action groups it has been involved in. Whenever the Irish armed forces are involved, they do a very good and competent job. The bigger question relates to the fact that as the EU develops, it is going to have to become a stronger security provider. It is already there. That is with regard to both the relationship between the EU and NATO but also PESCO and interoperability and all of that. In industrial policy, the EU is going to be there. At a minimum what Ireland cannot do is prevent other countries from doing what they think is necessary in their defence and security. That is the bottom line. We should not be a drag on what other countries feel they need to do.

There probably is a second issue around solidarity. For example, the European peace facility is now being used to provide material benefits to Ukraine, including lethal weapons. Of course, we constructively abstain from that part. I wonder if that is a sustainable policy. Is it something we need to think through? If we are supplying elements or certain things for the Ukrainian army but not lethal weapons, we are still accepting the need to fight. What does that mean? With Ireland's Brexit experience we had the extraordinary solidarity of 26 countries that had our back right along the way. It was an extraordinary display of European solidarity for a country. It is not that that comes with an invoice; it does not. It does not come with an expectation but it should come with at least a reflection about our place in this changing system.

As long as the American security guarantee to Europe persists, there will be no pressure on the EU to have an army or anything like that. That is not even remotely possible. Hypothetically, however, if the US decided that the Pacific was more important or that it did not want to commit to the security of Europe, then Europe would have to face its own security. That would be a very different environment for Ireland.