Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 11 May 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement

The Economics of Northern Ireland and the All-island Economy: Economic and Social Research Institute

Dr. Seamus McGuinness:

Ultimately, with regard to the benefits, we would have to look at a model that stops the decline of productivity in the North. Falling productivity that impacts on wages, the sustainability of services and the ability of a region to invest. Any move to any constitutional framework has to stop that. The biggest gains from any changes in constitutional arrangements would be to have a policy and investment framework that could stop the drop in productivity and improve those levels in the North. Bringing up productivity levels lowers or eradicates subvention, raises incomes and tax receipts and improves the ability of the region to enjoy and benefit from investment. That should be the focus. The work we have done and some of the statistics and trends have been truly disturbing, even for us. We were not expecting to see that. We are seeing a region that is substantially underperforming and therefore has substantial possibilities with respect to higher future growth, higher income levels and higher welfare and living standards under the right policy framework.

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