Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 11 May 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement

The Economics of Northern Ireland and the All-island Economy: Economic and Social Research Institute

Photo of Rose Conway-WalshRose Conway-Walsh (Mayo, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

I completely understand that. There is agreement across the board on our need to prepare and it is only how we prepare and how we develop the different questions and the answers to the questions that people have in their minds. Maybe I could ask Dr. Barrett to have a think about that. For us as a committee, what areas should we ask Government to consider?

As the ESRI was doing its research in the different areas, I am sure other questions popped up that it did not have the remit to address. That would be useful in informing our work. I will not ask Dr. Barrett what they are today but it would be valuable if he could submit those to the Chair.

In the ESRI's paper, The Political Economy of a Northern Ireland Border Poll, Drs. McGuinness and Bergin state:

The disconnect between the UK governments' decision to leave the EU and majority opinion in Northern Ireland has undoubtedly increased the likelihood of a border poll taking place. It is also likely that the momentum towards a border poll will continue to build in the wake of subsequent political developments related to Brexit. ... [and] it is crucial that any border poll is accompanied by accurate information regarding the likely costs and benefits of Irish unification.

They will recognise them because they are their own words.

In addition, Professor John Doyle, in his paper, Why the 'Subvention' does not Matter, concludes that the subvention "will be approximately €3 b[illion]" in the event of reunification and that, "Existing economic models of an all-island economy predict a positive impact on economic growth, following a transition period, at a level sufficient to cover this deficit, although more work needs to be done on the public policy decisions necessary to support sustainable economic growth and to maximise the benefits of a larger and integrated all-island economy." It is important we hone in on that. Does Dr. McGuinness agree that the subvention figure is likely to be nearer to €3 billion than some of the figures that we see?

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