Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 11 May 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement

The Economics of Northern Ireland and the All-island Economy: Economic and Social Research Institute

Dr. Seamus McGuinness:

I am happy to have a go at that question. To address the question of constitutional change, we need to decide what voters need to know at the point of a referendum. They need to know how welfare and living standards differ across various dimensions on both sides of the Border. They need to know what is the situation now. They also need to know how those situations are likely to change in the event of a border poll ratifying reunification. All of the work that is being done for us on behalf of the shared island unit and other work that is being done across the spectrum is populating that information base by noting the differences between the jurisdictions in respect of living standards and general welfare. If there were to be activity to gather that information in advance of a border poll, we would be well down the road.

There are other areas where gaps remain in providing a good, fundamental picture of the differences in welfare and social welfare. That information gap is likely to be plugged, going forward. The big questions are around the planning operation and the fundamental delivery of things such as education, health, social welfare and industrial policy. How will those things change following any border poll ratifying reunification? What pathway will policy take? Over what timescale will those various policies be implemented? What will the outcomes be? That is a completely different scenario and no work has been done in that area. What is the world going to look like on both sides of the Border at the time of a border poll? That information is being populated. The second part around planning has yet to begin.

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